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Game Theoretic and Economic Models in IT

Game Theory and Economic Models in IT Recent progress in theory for diverse game contexts repeated/finite, sustaining efficiency and cooperation, auctions, bargaining and negotiation, incomplete/imperfect information. Becoming standard language for decision making: economics, sociology. Recent Nobel prize for Nash. Networks: QoS: Service and resource pricing games for better QoS provisioning, congestion control. Current research activity. Denial of Service: Uncertainty in opponents, actions. Game approach to design monitoring and enforcement, balance costs and risks. Logistics - recent successes Physician Resident Matching program (preference matching) Cal power exchange (Dutch auctions) Explore application to DOD scenarios Collaborative reasoning, negotiation. Embed game theoretic tools in agents/decision aids; group decisions.

From Heisenberg vs Bohr to Picard vs Q: New Challenges for Game Theory and National Security

US Defense Policy: 3 Goals Strengthen the bond of trust between the American people and those who wear our nation’s uniform. We’ll give them the tools they need and the respect they deserve. We will work to defend our people and our allies against growing threats: the threats of missiles; information warfare; the threats of biological, chemical and nuclear weapons. We will confront the new threats of a new century. We will begin creating the military of the future, one that takes full advantage of revolutionary new technologies. We will promote the peace by redefining the way wars will be fought. President Bush at SecDef Rumsfeld Swearing-In Ceremony, 012601

National Intelligence Council Global Trends 2015 Biological Warfare Threat More players with offensive BW program More lethal agents More proliferation of technologies MI2 Game: The leaders of x believe they and only they have the antidote to a genetically altered agent. Your job is to prove them wrong (even if, and especially if, they are right). R. Preston “The Bioweaponeers”, New Yorker

The Past is Prologue 1962 Cuban (Missile) Crisis = More than 13 Days Virtual War: Nuclear Operations During the Cuban Crisis , P. Kozemchak , OSD/NA A. Wohlstetter, R. Wohlstetter On Controlling the Risks in Cuba, RAND and IISS Paper ARPA / DNA Long-Range R&D Program (Lukasik, Haas) 1973 US 6th Fleet vs Soviet Eskadra Center for Naval Analyses Schlesigner, Kissinger, Hearings 1989 Gorbachev Coup Odom 1991 Iraq Biological Weapons Powell, Jumper Desert Fox Leide, Zinni

Confronting WMD Prevention Options Assume: The Democracies declare (1) Any use of WMD against the citizens of the US or its allies is an act of war. (2) The use of WMD is the last act of the user. Your Mission: Create an X-FORCE to prevent use. Non-lethal and lethal options Information Requirements Measures of risk and performance vs ROEs\ pkozemchak@darpa.smil.mil pkozemchak@darpa.ic.gov

“All things are ready if our minds be so.” Current DOD readiness reporting systems (including JMRRs) fail to measure “decision superiority” of our commanders, value of information to warfighters Joint Vision 2020 and GPRA Is a 12-hour restoration time for mission-critical networks in “national security emergencies”  the best we can do?

What is DOD’s Social Welfare Function? The Strategic Review Meets The Impossibility Paradox

Research Topics Omniscience (o) and Omnipotence (O) in Games Quantum Strategies (Meyer) Brams Theory of Moves on Hamlet, Superior Beings, Biblical Games Copenhagen M. Frayen Hapgood T. Stoppard Warrior Codes in J. Keegan The Book of War: 25 Centuries of Great War Writing Bayesian Games and Mechanism Design The Market for Innovation Akerloff and Heal on supergames and product quality Surreal Games (Conway, Knuth) If surreal numbers are the answer, what’s the question? “Fair fights” in networks? Nash equilibria in large dynamic games (A. Green, Courant)

“Who dares wins.”

Can Game Theory Build Better Gamers? And Vice Versa?: An Experiment “On the Net nobody knows you’re… an algorithm.” Got game? Get game theory! Create an experimental gaming network. For each game of interest: What’s the best strategy? Fight it. Prove it. Improve it. No published solutions for multiplayer online games Use prize authority to sponsor algorithm tournaments Can you beat the OPFOR in Half-Life?